Continuing the theme of opposites, February Existing Home Sales fell 0.9% but are UP 8.8% over a year ago. And while the median price increased, a good thing, the supply also rose, not a good thing, but is still only 6.4 months. Friday, New Home Sales were off 1.6% for February, at a 313,000 annual rate, but the months’ supply is only 5.8, inventories are at record lows and the median price of new homes sold is UP 6.2% from a year ago, all good things.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK: Watch out for stress. When you feel it, just stop, relax and enjoy the world around you. Then focus that positive energy on new business and profits.

Review of Last Week:

HOT, THEN NOT… Investors pushed stocks to the S&P 500′s highest level since mid-2008, then took their profits, concerned that global economic conditions are still worrisome. As a result, the Dow and the S&P 500 suffered their worst weeks of the year, although the techie NASDAQ edged upward. The global negative vibe came from manufacturing indexes in China and Europe showing activity contracting in those regions. Not a great sign for our economically interconnected world.

Over here, the slight dips in housing numbers were a bit disappointing, although, as noted above, there was positive data as well, indicating real estate appears to be starting a recovery. Supporting that recovery is an improving jobs situation, as weekly initial jobless claims edged down to a multi-year low of 348,000. That number still needs to get way lower, but at least it’s no longer growing.

For the week, the Dow ended down 1.2%, at 13081; the S&P 500 closed down 0.5%, to 1397; and the NASDAQ went UP 2.2%, to 3068. 

Bond prices were hammered early in the week, and then benefited from the stock sell-off and the less inspiring economic data. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch wound up the week off just .01, at $102.12. National average mortgage rates headed up for the second week in a row in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. But mortgage rates still remain well below their levels of a year ago. 

DID YOU KNOW? According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), there’s been a reversal of the trend toward more single buyers: 64% of buyers are now married couples, the highest proportion since 2001. 

This Week’s Forecast:

PENDING HOME SALES, Q4 GDP AND, OH YES, INFLATION… The only thing left after last week’s avalanche of data on February housing was Pending Home Sales. This measure of signed contracts indicates actual sales a few months out and a mild trend upward is expected today. Thursday, the Q4 GDP 3rd Estimate is forecast to remain in moderate growth range. 

Core PCE Prices, excluding volatile food and energy, should remain within the Fed’s guidelines, although prices overall keep edging up. This, unfortunately, can also push up mortgage rates.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar:

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Mar 26 – Mar 30

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… The Fed has stated it wants to keep the Funds Rate low for quite some time, which is what economists expect. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

Realtor.com summarized the situation this way: “The nation’s housing markets as a whole are in better shape today than at any time since the 2009-2010 tax credits.” But it should be noted that although current inventory levels are near a two-year low, they’re likely to grow a bit during the spring selling season.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK… Rules (as opposed to laws) aren’t there to control us, but to guide us. If you need a creative solution, you may have to break the rules. But that can be profitable, and it’s always fun!

>> Review of Last Week

NEW HEIGHTS… The stock market enjoyed its fifth straight weekly gain, and its tenth in 11 tries. The broadly based S&P 500 is now up more than 11% for the year, as it ended the week above 1400 for the first time since mid-2008. Investors were feeling more hopeful in spite of the painfully slow U.S. economic recovery, worries over global economic growth rates and the still precarious European debt situation. Our economic indicators remain mixed.

Excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.9% in February versus a 1.1% hike in January. Initial weekly jobless claims were down 14,000, to 351,000, a slight improvement in the labor market. Inflation is still worrisome, with consumer prices UP 0.4% in February, although “core” prices, excluding food and energy, were up just 0.1%. Empire Manufacturing hit its highest level in over a year and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing reached a multi-month high, but overall industrial production was flat. Finally, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment slipped from the prior month’s one-year high.

For the week, the Dow ended up 2.4%, at 13233; the S&P 500 also closed UP 2.4%, to 1404; and the Nasdaq went UP 2.2%, to 3055. 

With signs the economy is improving, albeit at a snail’s pace, money flooded back into riskier stocks, sending bond prices lower. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .95, at $102.13. In Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, national average mortgage rates edged up slightly from their record lows. Demand for purchase loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, was up for the week and is now almost 12% above the level of a month ago.

DID YOU KNOW?… The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) predicts future economic activity by looking at 11 indicators, including initial unemployment claims, new orders for consumer goods, building permits and S&P 500 stock prices. 

>> This Week’s Forecast

FOCUS ON FEBRUARY HOUSING… This week reveals a pretty complete picture of the February housing market. Tuesday, Housing Starts and Building Permits are expected to edge up a little, a good thing, but no breakthrough yet in builder confidence. Wednesday, Existing Home Sales should creep closer to the 5 million annual rate. Friday, New Home Sales are forecast to remain at January’s annual rate.

There are no dramatic changes forecast for Initial and Continuing Unemployment Claims. The Leading Economic Indicators Index should move up a bit.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Mar 19 – Mar 23

>> Federal Reserve Watch   

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… The Fed kept the Funds Rate right where it’s been at last week’s FOMC meeting. And it’s expected to stay there a while longer. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

Buffett began by pointing out, “…equities are still cheap relative to any other asset class,” but added, “I would say the single-family homes are cheap now, too.” He then made this startling statement:

“If I had a way of buying a couple hundred thousand single-family homes… I would load up on them.”

He admitted that he would need a way to manage so many residences: “… the management is… really the problem because they’re one by one. They’re not like apartment houses.” But if it were practical, he would “load up on them and I would take mortgages out at very, very low rates.”

He then offered an insightful summary of the current situation in the housing market: “If anybody is thinking about buying a home — five years ago they couldn’t buy them fast enough, because they thought they were going to go up, and now they don’t buy them because they think they’re going to go down. And interest rates are far lower.”

Keying off the low mortgage interest rate situation, he pointed out:

“It’s a way, in effect, to short the dollar, because you can take a 30-year mortgage and if it turns out your interest rate’s too high, next week you refinance lower. And if it turns out it’s too low, the other guy’s stuck with it for 30 years. So it’s a very attractive asset class now.”

Buffett was then asked, point blank, if he were a young individual investor who had to choose between buying a first home or investing in stocks, which one would be the better bet? His characteristically direct answer:

“…if I knew where I was going to want to live the next five or 10 years, I would buy a home and I’d finance it with a 30-year mortgage and it’s a terrific deal.”

He followed that with this business idea:

“… if I was an investor that was a handy type, which I’m not, and I could buy a couple of them at distressed prices and find renters — and again take a 30-year mortgage — it’s a leveraged way of owning a very cheap asset now and I think that’s probably as attractive an investment as you can make now.”

Check out the video:

Click Here

And a final note: Buffett wrote in his latest letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders: “Housing will come back — you can be sure of that.”

So with today’s mortgage rates at historic new lows and with very affordable home prices, this is a great time to upsize, downsize or refinance. Please call or email us now to discuss your situation.

1. Pay no attention to media reports on nationwide statistics for the housing market. As a seller it is important to remember that real estate markets are purely local. The ratio of supply to demand is key to the health of your local real estate market. So no matter what you read about the housing market nationally, the local facts determine your chances of making a sale at any point in time.

2. The first question you should ask your realtor is how much competition would you have if you put your home on the market now, before the spring activity begins.

3. Not many sellers put their homes on the market the first few months of the year. The number of homes for sale is usually very small during the winter months. So, if your area is shy on inventory of good homes, now could be a good time to sell.

4. Interest rates are low but won’t stay that way forever. There could be a fair number of savvy buyers in your market who know this and want to take advantage of the situation now.

5. Many experts believe that the big price declines are behind us. More and more buyers are beginning to realize this and are taking a good look at today’s market.

STEP UP TO THAT TAX RETURN!

Getting organized can take a lot of stress out of preparing for your tax return. Now is the time to gather the information you’ll need to do your return or hand over to your tax professional. There are just three categories:

1. Paperwork:

• Last year’s return
• All income info: W-2 forms, 1099 forms, alimony, self-employment income
• Any 1098 forms: mortgage, educational institution statements, etc.
• IRA info
• Savings and investments info

2. Deductions:

• Charitable contributions
• Job hunting costs
• Moving costs
• State and local income taxes and sales taxes
• Real estate and personal property taxes
• Home mortgage interest and investment interest
• Points on a home mortgage or refinance
• Casualty and theft losses not covered by insurance
• Non-reimbursed business entertainment and travel expenses, including car use
• Business use of home
• Medical expenses
• Educational expenses

3. Miscellaneous expenses:

• Tax preparation and tax advice fees
• Safe deposit box rental
• Investment fees and expenses, including service charges on dividend reinvestment plans and trustee’s fees for your IRA, if separately billed and paid
• Convenience fees charged for paying income tax, including estimated tax payments, by credit or debit card
• Appraisal fees for a casualty loss or charitable contribution
• Ask a tax professional about other expenses you can deduct if you have extensive investments, or estate, trust, IRA or Social Security issues

The above are only guidelines to help you organize some of the information you’ll need to prepare your tax return. If you have any questions about these or other tax matters, always consult with a qualified tax professional.

News of a new Greek bailout plan did little to shake the markets, at least in the first couple of days since the announcement. In exchange for $172 billion dollars – approximately $19 billion of which is due on March 20 in the next round of Greek debt repayment – Greece will implement additional austerity measures, including sharp cuts in civil service jobs, welfare programs, and the national minimum wage. Other specifics are still to be worked out but the Troika (the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund) charged with the approval of measures backing the bailout fund must agree to the Greek plan by February 15th to ensure Greece’s timely repayment in March.

On the home front, Bernanke continues push for maintaining historically low rates. During his testimony before the Senate Budget Committee, the Fed chairman reiterated his FOMC policy stance of aggressive accommodation through at least late 2014. While employment numbers have been more encouraging of late and other production measures have shown signs of improvement, Bernanke still points to the languishing housing market as reason enough to keep rates low. Without an improvement in housing, Bernanke sees a growth path that remains slow and spotty.

To that end, many are watching for another QE of sorts, most likely in the form of additional MBS purchases. To what extent the Fed is sacrificing its mandate to maintain a low level of inflation in favor of near-term growth is yet to be seen. But for the time being, it appears rates will remain low if the Fed chairman has his way.

1. Ask big questions.
If you only ask practical, logistical, small questions, you’ll just get the small answers that will keep your business going, but not growing. Pursue the big questions: “What’s a better way to approach this? How can I change our business for the better?” Bigger questions demand bigger answers. And those lead to bigger successes.

2. Get a mentor who’s different from you.
You want a mentor who can open you up to new and different ideas and approaches. You want someone who supports what you’re doing, but who might come from a different business area, like manufacturing. They’ll contribute new perspective, frank insights and innovative feedback.

3. Be true to yourself.
You can’t lead if you’re always trying to act the way you think others would like you to. You can’t please everybody, but if you simply be yourself, you’ll find the right people will be drawn to you.
 
4. Focus on the mutual benefit.
If you want clients to be loyal to you, be loyal to them. Don’t put your business development efforts ahead of serving the business you already have. The same goes for employees. If you want them to work hard for you, work hard for them. Lead by example. 

5. Let go of bad clients.
It’s true, 80% of your time is taken up by 20% of your clients. That’s OK if they’re profitable, but if not, now’s the time to cut your losses. Bottom line, it will give you more time to make more money.

6. Do some hands-on volunteering.
It’s important to support your favorite causes financially, but it’s equally important to roll up your sleeves and actively help. The giving you actually experience is good for your head and good for your heart. And that’s the real foundation for success.

7. Don’t turn into a workaholic.
The goal of successful people is to be productive and efficient, not to work long hours. Working all the time actually makes it easy to be inefficient. Long hours do not represent a good work ethic; efficiency does. Plus to succeed, it’s important to be well-rounded; spend time with family, friends and personal interests.

Make these resolutions and stick with them. They’re great ways to improve yourself and your business.

With both Greece and Italy in the midst of leadership changes, investors remain fearful that the crisis will spread to other nations as well as the banking system. Contagion fears are being realized as yields on Italy’s debt have continued to climb and access to debt markets is on thin ice. Not surprisingly, anxiety around the need for a TARP like facility for EU banks increased after the unexpected demise of MF Global. The securities firm was pummeled after disclosing enormous exposure to European sovereign debt. The end was swift as investors headed for the exits and MF Global was forced to file for bankruptcy.

Despite the EU debt crisis providing an ominous milieu, the US consumer has shown some resiliency. US economic data has actually modestly improved recently with increases in a consumer spending and better than expected data on US employment. However, most agree that the present levels of improvement will need to be stepped up for the US economy to emerge from this lingering funk. Political rhetoric around job creation and US housing initiatives continue to swirl and will likely increase as we edge closed to an election year. However, a political battle looms as Congress will inevitably be forced to revisit the budget deficit as the self imposed congressional super-committee deadline is nearing.

While domestic U.S. economic data have shown some improvement of late with releases including the ISM manufacturing index, construction spending, and retail sales showing better-than-expected gains, news out of the euro-zone still has shown the power to drive equity and bond prices. Much of the recent rally in equity prices and climbing rates in bonds can be traced to growing comfort that the stronger European economies will do what’s necessary to protect the debt of the weaker nations – albeit with large haircuts to bond holders. Rumors have also swirled recently of the IMF providing a funding vehicle for the euro-zone crisis, which would bring into play funds from nations outside of Europe. It remains to be seen how significant a U.S. contribution would be to such an effort but both China and Brazil have shown some interest.

Notwithstanding the improvement in several economic indexes in the U.S., housing and employment remain weak. On the employment side, there was a small sigh of relief in the equity sector when September non-farm payroll growth came in higher than expected at 137k new jobs, but that number misstates the big picture. Many of the new jobs were part-time positions and the broader U6 employment measure, which includes under-employed workers, jumped significantly from 16.2% to 16.5%. There still appears to be a long way to go before the employment picture truly improves and while the news out of Europe still commands attention, the languishing economy in the U.S. will still provide a backdrop to intermediate-term interest rate projections

Products and projects that qualify for the federal tax credit may be found at:
http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=tax_credits.tx_index
Rebates and tax credits are also offered by states and these incentives can be searched at:
http://www.dsireusa.org

The maximum federal tax credit is $500 and the amount varies depending on the product. But tax credits are often better than deductions, which only reduce your taxable income. Tax credits reduce your total tax liability, so it’s like getting money back from the IRS.

Energy-efficient upgrades also save you money every year. Insulation can reduce air leakage 20 to 30%, saving about $220 a year. New windows can save up to $500 a year. A new air conditioner is typically 30% more efficient than a 10-year-old one. Central air cooling, new ductwork, and water heaters are other examples of very cost-effective improvements.

The good news is that federal tax breaks are available until 2016 for bigger green projects. Improvements such as solar energy systems, geothermal heat pumps, small wind turbines and fuel cells may earn a tax credit worth up to 30% of the cost, no matter the cost. For more information, check the Energy Star website: http://www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=tax_credits.tx_index

Always remember to consult a tax professional before proceeding with expenditures that have tax implications.

It is always a good idea to meet with your insurance agent once a year to review the “Coverage Limits” page of your policy. Doing so will allow you to be fully aware of the maximum amount your insurer will pay under each type of coverage.

1. Building/Dwelling Coverage. This type of coverage is the maximum amount you will receive if it is necessary to completely replace your home, including the structure, walls, windows, roofing, doors, bathrooms, kitchen, heating and cooling systems, and everything else. In order to determine the Building/Dwelling Coverage you need, take the cost per square foot for new construction in your area and multiply that by the square footage of your home. “Extended Replacement Cost Coverage” and “Building Ordinance Upgrade Coverage” are other coverage plans you should ask your insurance agent about. The Extended Replacement Cost Coverage pays a certain amount above the policy limit to replace a damaged home. This is particularly helpful after a natural disaster that leads to high demand for building contractors and materials and the normal cost of reconstruction increases. The Building Ordinance Upgrade Coverage insures against loss caused by enforcement of ordinances or laws regulating construction and repair of damaged buildings.

2. Personal Property Coverage. This coverage insures everything in your home, whether it is clothing, furniture, electronics, flatware, small appliances, or anything else. You should have enough coverage to replace it all in the event of a total loss. Special items like good jewelry, artwork, coin collections, etc., might have to be insured on a separate “rider” to get their full value in the event of a loss.

3. Liability Coverage. Homeowners’ insurance normally includes liability protection if someone is injured on your property. The usual coverage is $100,000-$300,000, which is enough if your net worth is less than that. If your assets are larger, ask about an “umbrella” policy to take your coverage to $1 million or more. It won’t cost that much more for complete peace of mind.

4. Find out what isn’t covered. Things like earthquakes, floods, other special occurrences and business activities are usually not covered in a standard homeowners’ policy. Ask your agent if it makes sense to get separate coverage if available.

5. Consider raising your deductibles. In the event of a loss, the deductible is the amount you pay first, out of pocket, before the insurance covers the rest, up to your policy limit. Raising your deductible will lower your premium, but it requires you to pay more if you have a loss.
 
Keep Hackers Out of Your Cell Phone
Cell phone hacking has been in the spotlight lately. Their illegal actions may have interfered with criminal investigations, clearly invaded the privacy of celebrities and quickly resulted in a 100-year-old tabloid shutting down, having lost the support of its advertisers.

One good thing to come out of this is people are now aware of how vulnerable their cell phone voicemails are. Journalists may not be interested in us, but why let curious strangers listen to our messages, much less ex-partners or bosses.

To protect your cell phone and keep those voicemail messages private, always create your own security PIN code for your cell phone voicemail. Most people don’t bother to change the default PIN code that came with the phone. It’s very easy for hackers to find this default PIN for any cell phone brand or network. Once they do, they can access your voicemails from almost any phone on the planet.

If you don’t know how to set up your own security PIN code, call your cell phone network customer service number or visit their website. Come up with a PIN code that’s hard to crack. DON’T use your birthday, street or apartment number or zip code. As a final precaution, always delete cell phone messages once you listen to them.

DULUTH, GA, August 19, 2011 – Brand Mortgage Group, a leader in mortgage lending, is pleased to announce that they are expanding their operations to the Peachtree City – Newnan area. This will be the company’s 13^th location in the southeast.

Says President Alex Koutouzis, “Opening a branch in the area named the Top Place to Live by CNN is the next logical step for us. This area has experienced a tremendous amount of growth in population, wages, and property values since 2000. We are excited to be part of such a vibrant place.”

The branch will be headed up by David Loeffler, a 25 year mortgage veteran. He has a proven track record for managing mortgage branches and has personally produced over $61 million in the last two years alone.

Linda Walden, the new sales manager, has over 30 years experience in the mortgage industry.  Rounding out the team are Mike Estes, Pam Morris, and Lynne Staples. With the new team’s vast knowledge, proven track record, and hard work, the office is sure to become one of Brand Mortgage’s top lending centers.

When we add it all up, the first half of August has seen the S&P 500 fall by about 7%, though at one point the S&P was down 15%. Commodity performance has been mixed, with oil and most industrial commodities lower but gold higher. Interest rates have fallen substantially, with the benchmark Fannie MBS yield down by 0.57% to 3.24%. That 3.24% mark for MBS matches the lows in rates from last October. As a result, we expect 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rates to match last year’s lows. Hybrid ARM rates should be even lower than what we saw last fall. One positive result of all this volatility is that the rally in bonds has given many borrowers an opportunity to refinance at exceptionally low rates.

Following the holiday weekend, bonds tried to gain back some ground but a stronger than expected ADP jobs report pushed rates higher again. The level to which the ADP report is reflective of what the Bureau of Labor Statistics presents as non-farm payroll growth has been a matter of ongoing debate. Some months, the ADP report provides a useful preview of the BLS report, other months, not so much. That alone would suggest that is not very descriptive, and yet, the debate continues. In the case of June data, a fairly strong ADP report was followed by a dismal non-farm payroll report. Per the BLS report, only 18k new jobs were created in June and the headline unemployment rate ticked up to 9.2%. The broader U6 measure, which includes underemployed workers, bounced from 15.8% in May to 16.2% in June.

On top of a weak non-farm payroll report, investors faced renewed worries about European debt. The relief felt when Greece passed their austerity bill was quickly reversed when Italy joined the list of countries that have faced strong selling of their sovereign debt. The Italian 10-year bond saw yields jump nearly .50% as future default concerns grew. In addition, Moody’s cut Ireland’s credit rating further saying there was a ‘growing possibility’ of additional bail-out aid needed by late 2013.

It may be pins and needles for the bond and equity markets in the coming weeks. On top of further job market weakening in June and continued Euro-zone debt concerns, a small matter of the U.S. debt ceiling has still to play out. Stay tuned for more volatility.

• Payment History–35%  How you’ve handled credit cards, retail accounts, installment loans, finance company accounts, mortgages, etc. FICO also looks into public records such as bankruptcy, wage attachments, and collections. For payment delinquencies, they want to know, how much, how many, and how long ago they occurred.
• Amounts Owed–30%  What you owe, what types of accounts, and how many. The percentage of your credit line your balances typically use. The percent of the principal still owed on installment loans.
• Length of Credit History–15%  How long the account’s been opened, its specific type, and account activity.
• New Credit–10%  Number and proportion of recently opened accounts and recent credit inquiries. Time since account openings and credit inquiries. Is this a re-establishment of positive credit history following past payment problems?
• Types of Credit Used–10%  Number of and recent information on all the various types of accounts you use — credit cards, retail accounts, installment loans, mortgages, consumer finance accounts, etc.

Please contact us about these topics or any other questions about your home financing. We’re happy to put together the perfect mortgage solution for your special situation…and best wishes in this and all your endeavors!

June 25, 2011 | 9:00 AM – 4:00 PM | Loudermilk Conference Center

40 Courtland Street NE | Atlanta, GA  30303

Register at www.gahomeownership.com

Thank you for visiting our site. Please visit us again soon.